Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,989$ on 2020-10-08

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $310$ on 2020-10-08

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,206$ on 2020-10-08

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,881$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,511.0}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 85.7)}}\) (asimptote \(53,511.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,087$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,978.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,978.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,394$ on 2020-10-08

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $338,398$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{261,037.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 48.4)}}\) (asimptote \(261,037.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,083$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,976.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(34,976.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65,952$ on 2020-10-08

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,605,873$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,897,370.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,897,370.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $212,762$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{204,002.9}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 87.3)}}\) (asimptote \(204,002.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,371,859$ on 2020-10-08

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $564,502$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{382,028.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 77.6)}}\) (asimptote \(382,028.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,682$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,052.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(41,052.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $519,346$ on 2020-10-08

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $97,532$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,607.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 98.5)}}\) (asimptote \(89,607.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,892$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,774.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,774.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91,640$ on 2020-10-08

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $315,941$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{248,294.7}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(248,294.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,545$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,123.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,123.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,436$ on 2020-10-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 99%
Mauritania recovered 95%
Kazakhstan recovered 91%
Australia recovered 86%
Saudi Arabia recovered 85%
Uzbekistan recovered 72%
El Salvador recovered 64%
Senegal recovered 59%
Malawi recovered 57%
Peru recovered 56%
Bolivia recovered 51%
Cuba recovered 50%
Kenya recovered 44%
Tajikistan recovered 42%
Rwanda recovered 38%
Dominican Republic recovered 37%
Venezuela recovered 33%
Bahrain recovered 32%
Bangladesh recovered 30%
Denmark recovered 15%
Israel recovered 15%
India recovered 12%
Iraq recovered 3%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,849$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,065.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.6)}}\) (asimptote \(56,065.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $154$ on 2020-10-08

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,540$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,129.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 91.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,129.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $162$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 77.2)}}\) (asimptote \(158.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $151$ on 2020-10-08

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,561$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,640.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,640.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,742.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,742.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,057$ on 2020-10-08

Australia⮸

Population $25,499,884$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,226$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,747.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 174.4)}}\) (asimptote \(42,747.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $897$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,090.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 171.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,090.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,358$ on 2020-10-08